Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) Stock

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is a Consumer Discretionary stock trading at $63.66 (as of 2026-09-03), with a market capitalization of $2.02B and a trailing P/E of 7.2. Figures are sourced from first-party U.S. SEC EDGAR filings and market data.

Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related components through Bus and Parts segments. It offers multiple bus types and alternative-fuel options, and sells via dealers and directly to fleet operators and government customers.

Understand Blue Bird Corporation: how it makes money

Blue Bird designs and builds school buses (diesel, propane, natural gas, electric) plus aftermarket parts, sold through dealers and directly to U.S. and Canadian school districts and government fleets. The model leans heavily on the six-year replacement cycle and 88% internal-combustion mix, so pricing power tracks metal and component costs more than discretionary demand.

Blue Bird's profit engine is the U.S. school-bus replacement cycle: districts swap vehicles roughly every six years, creating a recurring, government-adjacent volume floor that few cyclical manufacturers enjoy, with pricing passed through an 88% internal-combustion parts supply chain.

Business quality (Solid): Solid: 20% gross margin, 12% operating margin, and 43% ROE on a $500M quarterly revenue base show a real business, but the 6.6x multiple says the market is not paying up for it.

Valuation: At 7× earnings, BLBD trades 62% below the Automobiles & Trucks average (17×). Note: the low multiple may reflect one-time earnings items.

Bull case

  • Replacement cycle anchors demand: Management framed the addressable market around a roughly 6% CAGR driven by U.S. school-bus replacement cycles, a volume floor that does not swing with economic downturns or new-construction spending.
  • Record cash funds next phase: Liquidity hit a record $418 million after strong cash generation, giving Blue Bird the dry powder to fund the new 9,000-bus-annually plant and the Microbird shuttle ramp without adding leverage.
  • Stock embeds deep skepticism: At 6.6x trailing earnings versus a 17x Automobiles & Trucks industry average (62% below), the share prices in permanent doubt even though revenue grew 30% year over year in the latest quarter.

Bear case

  • Capacity caps near-term upside: Management acknowledged that production capacity is currently constraining additional volume, so stronger-than-expected district orders cannot be captured until the new plant fully ramps, capping the revenue upside in the interim.
  • EV line lost momentum: EV deliveries fell 64 units year over year in Q2, a concrete sign the electrification pivot is stalling at the unit level while fuel-mandate timelines in several states continue to tighten.
  • Microbird ramp is gradual: Management cautioned that the Microbird commercial-shuttle opportunity requires a gradual contract ramp, meaning the Buy America tailwind will not show up as meaningful revenue for several quarters at the earliest.
Valuation — source: SEC EDGAR (first-party)
Price$63.66
Market Cap$2.02B
P/E Ratio7.2
EV / EBITDA9.7
Price / Book3.08
Price / Sales1.25
FCF Yield7.6%
DCF Value (model)$69.96
DCF Upside vs Price9.9%
Profitability & Growth — source: SEC EDGAR
Revenue (TTM)$1.48B
Net Margin8.6%
Revenue Growth (YoY)29.9%
EPS Growth (YoY)366.4%
FCF Growth (YoY)-58.6%
Financial Health — source: SEC EDGAR
Altman Z-Score7.06 (safe)
Piotroski F-Score8/9 (strong)
Valuation vs Sector & Industry
Stock P/E7.2
Sector P/E (Consumer Discretionary)20.2
Industry P/E (Automobiles & Trucks)18.0
vs Sector-64.5%
vs Industry-60.2%
Smart-Money Activity — SEC Form 4 / 13F / Congressional disclosures
Top Institutional HolderBlackRock, Inc. ($147.09M)
Institutional Holders Tracked10
Congressional Trades (recent)1
Company
SectorConsumer Discretionary
IndustryAutomobiles & Trucks
CEOJohn Wyskiel
Employees1,945
CountryUS
IPO Date2014-03-20

Blue Bird Corporation earnings call transcripts

  • BLBD Q2 FY26 earnings call transcript (reported 2026-05-06) · analysis
  • BLBD Q1 FY26 earnings call transcript (reported 2026-02-04) · analysis
  • BLBD Q4 FY25 earnings call transcript (reported 2025-11-24) · analysis

All BLBD earnings calls

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BLBD earnings history · BLBD institutional & insider holders · BLBD KPIs & operating metrics · BLBD financials · BLBD investor presentations & press releases · BLBD SEC filings · BLBD peers · Congress trades · Insider trades · Short interest · Stock screener

Data as of 2026-09-03.

Figures sourced from U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC EDGAR) filings and market data. Not personalized investment advice.