Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Stock

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is a Financials stock trading at $75.04 (as of 2026-09-02), with a market capitalization of $3.32B and a trailing P/E of 9.5. Figures are sourced from first-party U.S. SEC EDGAR filings and market data.

Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Insurance and Asset Management. It offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. The company insures and reinsures various debt obligations, including bonds issued by the United States state governmental authorities; and notes issued to finance infrastructure projects. It also insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it is involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, pooled infrastructure, and other public finance obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. Structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, consumer receivables securities, pooled corporate obligations, financial products, and other structured finance securities. Additionally, the company offers specialty insurance and reinsurance that include life and aircraft residual value insurance transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services, including management of collateralized loan obligations, and opportunity and liquid strategy funds. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors in such obligations. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Understand Assured Guaranty Ltd.: how it makes money

Assured Guaranty sells financial guaranty insurance on municipal bonds, infrastructure debt, and structured-finance obligations, earning premium for absorbing the default risk behind those issues. It also runs an asset-management arm, and the guaranty business dominates: the company backs roughly 58% of new-issue insured municipal bonds sold in the US.

Earnings swing with municipal and infrastructure issuance volumes and credit conditions, so the company layers a growing, marked-to-market alternative-investment portfolio on top of premium income to smooth the cycle.

Business quality (Mixed): Mixed. A dominant market position and 25% operating margin are offset by a 31% revenue decline, 6% ROE, and a business whose top line tracks issuance cycles rather than recurring subscriptions.

Valuation: At 9× earnings, AGO trades 28% below the Insurance average (13×).

Bull case

  • Default choice for issuers: The company holds 58% of new-issue insured municipal par sold, a structural position that makes it the go-to guarantor for state and local authorities seeking to lower their borrowing costs.
  • Alt income growing fast: Alternative investments generated $160 million of 2025 adjusted operating income, up 33%, giving the company a second earnings engine that is less dependent on new-issue premium volumes.
  • Trade at a clear discount: The stock sits at a P/E of 9.4× versus the Insurance industry average of 13×, a 28% below-industry multiple that may understate the durability of the guaranty franchise.

Bear case

  • Premium shrinks as credit improves: Higher-rated municipal deals improve loss experience but generate less premium, so the very credit cycle that protects the balance sheet simultaneously compresses top-line revenue, which already fell 31% year over year.
  • CLO tail risk unbounded: The alternative portfolio includes CLO exposure and is marked to market, meaning a structured-credit stress event could hit earnings with no fixed floor, unlike the capped loss profile of the guaranty book.
  • Capital diverted from buybacks: Management flagged that buybacks could fall below the prior target as annuity-reinsurance opportunities compete for balance-sheet capacity, capping a key return lever for shareholders.
Valuation — source: SEC EDGAR (first-party)
Price$75.04
Market Cap$3.32B
P/E Ratio9.5
EV / EBITDA11.3
Price / Book0.60
Price / Sales3.54
DCF Value (model)$169.27
DCF Upside vs Price125.6%
Profitability & Growth — source: SEC EDGAR
Revenue (TTM)$1.11B
Net Margin45.3%
Revenue Growth (YoY)-30.6%
EPS Growth (YoY)-58.1%
Valuation vs Sector & Industry
Stock P/E9.5
Sector P/E (Financials)14.9
Industry P/E (Insurance)12.1
vs Sector-36.5%
vs Industry-22.1%
Company
SectorFinancials
IndustryInsurance
CEODominic John Frederico
Employees361
CountryBM
IPO Date2004-04-23

Assured Guaranty Ltd. earnings call transcripts

  • AGO Q4 FY25 earnings call transcript (reported 2026-02-26) · analysis
  • AGO Q2 FY25 earnings call transcript (reported 2025-08-07) · analysis

All AGO earnings calls

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AGO earnings history · AGO institutional & insider holders · AGO KPIs & operating metrics · AGO financials · AGO investor presentations & press releases · AGO SEC filings · AGO peers · Congress trades · Insider trades · Short interest · Stock screener

Data as of 2026-09-02.

Figures sourced from U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC EDGAR) filings and market data. Not personalized investment advice.