| Quarter | Q2 FY25 |
|---|---|
| Call date | 2025-07-17 |
| Results reported | 2025-07-17 |
| Length | 76 minutes |
Results, guidance and Q&A analysis for this call
Unknown (Multiple speakers (operator, executives, and analysts))
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC's second quarter 2025 earnings conference and conference call. This is Jeff Hsu, TSMC's Director of Investor Relations, and your host for today. Today's event is being webcast live through TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials if you are joining us through the conference call. Your dialing lines are in listen-only mode. The format for today's event will be as follows. First, TSMC's Senior Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the second quarter of 2025, followed by our guidance for the third quarter of 2025. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company's key messages. Then we will open both the floor and the line for the question and answer session. As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today's discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears on our press release. And now, I would like to turn the microphone over to TSMC CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance. Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. My presentation will start with financial highlights for the second quarter of 2025. After that, I will provide the guidance for the third quarter of 2025. Second quarter revenue increased 11.3% sequentially in NT. as our business was supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies, partially offset by an unfavorable foreign exchange rate. In U.S. dollar term, revenue increased 17.8% sequentially to $30.1 billion and exceeded our second quarter guidance. Gross margin decreased 0.2 percentage points sequentially to 58.6%, primarily due to an unfavorable foreign exchange rate and margin dilution from our overseas fab, partially balanced by higher capacity utilization and cost improvement efforts. Due to operating leverage, operating margin increased 1.1 percentage points sequentially to 49.6%. Overall, our second quarter EPS was 15.36 NT, up 60.7% year-over-year, and ROE was 34.8%. Now let's move on to revenue by technology. 3-nanometer process technology contributed 24% of wafer revenue in the second quarter, while 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer accounted for 36% and 14% respectively. Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and below, accounted for 74% of wafer revenue. Moving on to revenue contribution by platform. HPC increased 14% quarter-over-quarter to account for 60% of our second quarter revenue. Smartphone increased 7% to account for 27%. IoT increased 14% to account for 5%. Automotive stayed flat and accounted for 5%. And DCE increased 30% to account for 1%. Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with cash and marketable securities of 2.6 trillion NT, or 90 billion U.S. dollars. On the liability side, current liabilities decreased by 22 billion NT quarter over quarter, mainly due to the decrease of 38 billion in accrued liabilities and others. The decrease in accrued liabilities and others was mainly due to the payment of income tax. On financial ratios, accounts receivable turnover days decreased five days to 23 days. The decrease in accounts receivable was mainly due to anti-dollar appreciation, as almost all of our accounts receivables are in U.S. dollars. Days of inventory decreased seven days to 76 days, primarily due to higher M3 and M5 wafer shipments. Regarding cash flow and CAPEX. During the second quarter, we generated about 497 billion NT in cash from operations, spent 297 billion in CAPEX, and distributed 117 billion for third quarter 24 cash dividend. Taking the unfavorable exchange rate into consideration, our cash balance decreased 30.3 billion NT to 2.36 trillion at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our second quarter capital expenditures total 9.6 billion. I've finished my financial summary. Now let's turn to our current quarter guidance. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our third quarter revenue to be between 31.8 billion and 33 billion U.S. dollars, which represents an 8% sequential increase. or a 38% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of $1 to 29 MT, world's margin is expected to be between 55.5% and 57.5%, operating margin between 45.5% and 47.5%. In addition, we maintain our 2025 capital budget to be between $38 billion and $42 billion U.S. This concludes my financial presentation. Now let me turn to our key messages. I will start by talking about our second quarter 25 and third quarter 25 profitability. Compared to first quarter, our second quarter gross margin slightly decreased. by 20 basis points, sequentially to 58.6%. This was primarily due to an unfavorable foreign exchange rate and margin dilution from our overseas FAB, partially offset by higher than expected overall capacity utilization and cost improvement efforts. Compared to the first quarter, foreign exchange rate of $1 to 32.88 NT. the actual second quarter exchange rate was $1 to 31.05 MT. This created about 220 basis points margin headwind to our actual second quarter gross margin. We also experienced slightly more than 100 basis points impact from the ramp-up of our overseas FABs, mainly as the margin dilution from our Erona FABs started to kick in. We have just guided... our third quarter gross margin to decrease by 210 basis points to 56.5% at the midpoint, primarily due to the continual unfavorable foreign exchange rate and more pronounced dilution from overseas fats as we ramp up further in Kumamoto and Arizona. We continue to forecast the gross margin dilution from the ramp up of our overseas fabs in the next five years starting from 2025 to be between 2% to 3% every year in the early stages and widen to 3% to 4% in the latter stages. Despite the higher cost of overseas fabs, we will leverage our increasing size in Arizona and work on our operations to improve the cost structure. We will also continue to work closely with our customers and suppliers to manage the impact. Overall, with our fundamental competitive advantages of manufacturing technology leadership and large-scale production base, We expect TSMC to be the most efficient and cost-effective manufacturer in every region that we operate. Now, let me make some comments on the impact of foreign exchange rate on TSMC's revenue and profitability. NT dollar is the reporting currency of our financial statements. Nearly all of our revenue is in U.S. dollars, while about 75% of cost of goods sold is in NT. Therefore, fluctuations in the exchange rate between U.S. dollar and NT will have a sizable impact to our reported revenue and gross profit margin. The sensitivity of the revenue to dollar-NT exchange rate is nearly 100%. That is, every 1% appreciation of NT against U.S. dollars will reduce our reported NT revenue by 1%. The sensitivity of our gross margin to the same 1% exchange rate change is about 40 basis points. That is, if NT appreciate 1% against the dollar, our gross margin will come down by about 40 basis points. Compared with our second quarter exchange rate guidance of $1 to 32.5 MT provided on April the 17th, The NT dollar has appreciated by an average of about 4.4% sequentially, which negatively impacted our second quarter revenue by about 4.4% in NT and our gross margin by about 180 basis points. For third quarter of 25, based on the current exchange rate of $1 to 29 NT, the average NT dollar will appreciate by another 6.6%. sequentially, which will negatively impact our third quarter revenue by 6.6% in NT and reduce our gross margin by about 260 basis points. As a reminder, six factors determine TSMC's profitability. Leadership, technology, development, and rent. pricing, capacity utilization, cost reduction, technology mix, and foreign exchange rate, which is not in our control. When the foreign exchange rate is unfavorable, as it is currently, we will focus on the fundamentals of our business and lean on the other five factors to manage through it, and we have successfully done in the past. Thus, even with the unfavorable foreign exchange rate, We believe a long-term growth margin of 53% and higher remains well achievable. Now let me turn the microphone over to CC. Thank you, Wendell. Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with our near-term demand outlook. We concluded our second quarter with revenue of $30.1 billion in U.S. dollar. Approve our guidance in U.S. dollar term. mainly due to continued robust AI and HPC-related demand. Moving into the third quarter of 2025, we expect our business in the third quarter to be driven by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies. Looking into the second half of 2025, we have not seen any change in our customers' behavior so far. However, we understand there are uncertainties and risks from the potential impact of tariff policies, especially on consumer-related enterprise-sensitive and market segments. While we observe rebate programs in China are stimulating some near-term demand upside, we believe this is a short-term invention. and continue to expect a mild recovery in overall non-AI market segment in 2025. Having said that, we believe that demand for semiconductors is very fundamental and will continue to be robust. Recent developments are also positive to AI's long-term demand outlook. The explosive growth in token volume demonstrates increasing AI model usage and adoption, which means more and more computation is needed, leading to more leading AI silicon demand. We also see AI demand continuing to be strong, including the rising demand from sovereign AI. Therefore, We now expect our full-year 2025 revenue to increase by around 30% in USR term, supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 3nm and 5nm technologies, underpinned by working our HPC platform. Amidst the uncertainties, we will remain mindful of the... potential parent-related impact, and be prudent in our business planning going into second half 2025 and 2026 while continuing to invest for the future makeup trend. We will also focus on the fundamentals of our business, technology leadership, manufacturing excellence, and customer trust to further strengthen our competitive leadership. Next, let me talk about TSMC's global manufacturing footprint update. All our overseas decisions are based on customers' needs. The value sums up graphic flexibility and a necessary level of government support. This is also to maximize the value of our shareholders. With a strong collaboration and support from our leading U.S. customers, and the U.S. federal state and city government will announce our intention to invest a total of U.S. $165 billion in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the United States. This expansion includes plans for six advanced waveform manufacturing plants in Arizona, two advanced packaging plants, and a major R&D center. to support the stronger multi-year demand from our customers. Our first lab in Arizona has already successfully entered into high-volume production in 4Q2034, utilizing N4 process technology with a yield comparable to our lab in Taiwan. The construction of our second lab, which was utilized with nanometer process technology, is already complete. We are seeing strong interest from our leading U.S. customers and are working on speeding up the boring production schedule by several quarters to support their needs. Construction of our server, which was utilized through nanometer and A16 process technologies, has already begun, and we are looking to speeding up the production schedule as well. based on the strong air-related demand from our customers. Our fourth class was utilized, Gen 2 and the A16 process technology, and our fifth and sixth class was used even more advanced technologies. The construction and ramp schedule for those classes was based on our customers' needs. Our expansion plan will enable THMC to scale up to a decaf lab cluster in Arizona to support the needs of our leading edge customers in smartphone, AI, and HPC applications. We also plan to build two new advanced packaging facilities and establish an R&D center to complete the AI supply chain. After completion, Around 30% of our 2-nanometer and more advanced capacity was relocated in Arizona, creating an independent leading as semiconductor manufacturing cluster in the U.S. Thus, TSMC will continue to play a critical and integral role in enabling our customers' success. We also maintain a key partner and enabler of the U.S. semiconductor industry. Next, in Japan, thanks to the strong support from the Japan Central Prefecture and local government, our first specialty technology plant in Kumamoto has already started volume production in late 2024 with very good yield. The construction of our second specialty plant. It's scheduled to start later this year, subject to the readiness of the local infrastructure. The run schedule will be based on our customers' need and market conditions. In Europe, we have received strong commitment from the European Commission and the German federal, state, and city governments, and are progressing smoothly with our plans to build a specialty technology fab in Dresden, Germany. The RAN schedule was also based on our customers' needs and market conditions. In Taiwan, with support from the Taiwan government, we plan to build 11 wafer manufacturing fab and four advanced packaging facilities over the next several years. We are preparing for multiple phases. of two nanobuilder plants in both Hsinchu and Kaohsiung sidecars to support the strong structural demand from our customers. By expanding our global footprint while continuing to invest in Taiwan, TSMC can continue to be the trusted technology and capacity provider of the global IC industry for years to come while delivering profitable growth for our shareholders. Now let me talk about our M2 and A16 status. Our N2 and N16 technologies lead the industry in addressing the insatiable demand for energy-efficient computing, and almost all the innovators are working with CHMC. We expect a number of new take-outs for 2-nanometer technology in the first two years to be higher than both 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer in the first two years. fueled by both smartphone and HPC applications, and to what deliver full node performance and power benefit. With 10 to 15 speed improvement at the same power, or 20 to 30% power improvement at the same speed, the more than 15% chip density increase as compared with the M3E. N2 is well on track for volume production in the second half of 2025, as scheduled, with a ramp-up similar to N3. With our strategy of continuous enhancement, we also introduced N2P as an extension of our N2 family. M2P features a further performance and power benefits on top of M2. The onboarding production is scheduled for second half 2026. We also introduced A16 featuring our best-in-class superpower rail, or SPR. Compared with the M2P, A16 provides a further 8% to 10% speed improvement at the same power. or 15% to 20% power improvement at the same speed, and additional 7% to 10% chip density gain. N16 is best suited for specific HPC products with complex signal routes and dense power delivery network. Volume production is on track for second half 2026. We believe M2, M2P, A16, and its derivatives will fuel our M2 family to be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC. Finally, let me talk about our A14 status. Featuring our second-generation NLC transistor structure, A14-1 delivers another full-node stride from M2. with performance and power benefits to address the increasing structural demand for high performance and energy efficient computing. Compared with the M2, A16 will provide 10 to 15 speed improvement at the same power or 20 to 30% power improvement at the same speed and about 20% chip density gain. Our A14 technology development is on track and progressing well, with device performance and year improvement on or ahead of schedule. Volume production is scheduled for 2028. We will continue our strategy of continuous air enhancement with A14, including a super power rail operating planned for 2029. We believe A14 and its derivative will further extend our technology leadership position and enable THMC to capture the world's opportunities way into the future. This concluding our key message and thank you for your attention. Thank you, CC. This does conclude our prepared statements. So before we begin the question and answer session, I would like to remind everybody to please limit your questions to two at a time so that we can allow all the participants an opportunity to ask their questions. Questions will be taken both from the floor and from the call. Should you wish to raise your question in Chinese, I will translate it to English before our management answers your question. For those of you on the call, if you'd like to ask a question, please press the star then one on your telephone keypad now.
Unknown (Multiple speakers (operator, executives, and analysts))
If at any time you'd like to remove yourself from the question queue, please press star then two. So now let's begin the question and answer session. We'll take the first few questions from the floor, then we'll flip and alternate to those on the line. Maybe we'll go left, center, and then right sort of a sequence. And we'll start here with Goko Hariharan from JP Morgan. First question on demand. I think you mentioned data center AI demand certainly looks better than maybe three months back. Last quarter you also mentioned cohort capacity will probably come into balance by 2026. Is that still our view or you think that the capacity now starts to look tighter? Second, I think you talked about on-device AI as a potential future driver. Are you seeing more development on the on-device AI path? Is it better compared to three, six months back? And lastly, near term, your 4Q looks like you're expecting revenue to decline. Is that based on what your customers are telling, especially on the consumer side, or is it just TSMC being... cautious and conservative in terms of the guidance. Okay, Gokul, thank you. Again, for the benefit of those, of course, here in person on the line, please allow me to summarize your questions. So maybe we'll take them one by one. His first question is on the demand, particularly data center and AI-related demand. As PC said in his remarks, it is certainly still even stronger. So his question is about the advanced packaging and co-op demand into 2026. How do we see the supply-demand gap narrowing or becoming more balanced for co-ops specifically? Goku, the demand from the AI is getting stronger and stronger. If you pay attention to what the four, three companies, the CEO said. And so the makeup trend for the AI is continue to be strong. And so is the co-ops. And so now we are, again, we are in a mode, try to narrow the gap. I don't want to use the balance. The last time you guys misunderstood what I said, you thought it was bad wording. So I want to say we try to narrow the gap, all right? So momentum is still there and brain is healthy. Okay, and then the second question or second part is on device or edge AI. Coco wants to know how is the development of customers to work on device AI compared to maybe three to six months ago? What is the interest or activity level, and how do we see this? The last time I say it, I say that it takes one to two years for my customer to complete the new design on the product. The momentum is still going. They are still continuing to, as time goes by, as I said, the increase on the edge device, the number of the units is actually mild. But then the die size increased. We continue to see that. And the die size increased by about 5% to 10%. And that kind of trend continued. Okay. So you have to wait another probably six months or to one year to see an explosion. Okay. And then go with the second question or the final part on the near term. I think, Gogo, your question is with our third quarter guidance implies fourth quarter. Is there any particular reason or any comment that we want to make about the implied fourth quarter business momentum? i think you did not mention goku's comments there or you are become conservative that company is more real we are we are a company that when we say that you are achieved and achieve the high target So your calculation, I think, Charlie, also is nothing. But a lot of you is calculating our reporter numbers so that you can easily see that our first quarter is decreasing. We take into the consideration of the possible impact of tariff and a lot of other uncertainties. So we become more conservative. That's our current attitude. But I guarantee you with our technology leadership position and excellent manufacturing, if there are any opportunities, we will catch and be expected that we will achieve our high-end target. Okay. Thank you, Sisi. Thank you, Gokul. Sorry, let's go one by one. The second question that may be Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley. Thanks for taking my question. Good afternoon, Sisi and then Jeff. So first of all, congrats for very strong results and especially on the gross margin side, a very good exclusion indeed. So my first question is really also on the gross margin because the cumulative FFD impact is almost like 4.4 percentage points. It's too big to ignore. So when KFNC considers your 2026 worker pricing, so-called reflecting your value, which you consider is FFD impact, and you're confident to keep your margin. similar to DCS label. I feel like at 53% is a low bar. So I just want to admit a little bit high and see if that FX impact can be considered to reflect to your value. Thank you. Okay. So Charlie's first question is on margin and I guess pricing. He knows obviously as Windows 30. big move in the exchange rate and therefore a big impact to our profitability and gross margin. So his question is looking ahead to 2026, can we reflect or earn our value from the including the FX impact into the pricing? And therefore, what is our confidence level on the gross margin for next year? Can it keep a similar level as this year? Well, let me assure you that Yes, the impact from the exchange rate is huge. But you try to imply that whether we are still our value. Let me answer that. We are working on it. And we have confidence that the 53% gross margin and higher, I still want you guys to pay more attention to in the higher. Thank you. Okay, thanks. Hopefully, it will work out well. My second question is also a very hot topic recently about the H20 chip shipping to China. I remember three months ago, there was another question on this matter, right, meaning that back then, I believe the chip was a suspend, but you're still very confident about your mid-40% CAGR for cloud semi-growth in the coming five years. Right now, China becomes your addressable market again. Do you think that the 40% CAGR target can be revised up? Okay. Thank you, Charlie. So, Charlie's second question is around the AI accelerator demand. He knows, of course, our customer's product, H20, recently, now seems to be able to ship to China versus three months ago it was not. So, his question really is, are long-term AI accelerator growth cater to growth close to mid-40s? Can it be higher? Do we think it will be higher? Is there upside to this? Charlie, the S20 now is holding, again, according to the world trading companies, the CEO, you know, we did not receive the signal yet, so it's too early to give you an estimate. But certainly, this is good news, right? I mean, China is a big market, and my customer can... still continue to supply the chips to the big market. And it's a very positive news for them. And in return, it's a very positive news to TSMC. Whether we are ready to increase our forecast, not yet. Another quarter probably will be more appropriate to answer your question. Thanks for your comments. They're very helpful. Thanks. Thank you, Charlie. Okay, then we'll move on to the right side of the room for us, Bruce Liu from Goldman Sachs. Thank you for taking my question. I think Charlie already asked a profitable question already, so I'll just move on to your end to read this. So what's the revenue contribution you can expect for the end-to-end for next year? I'm a little bit surprised to hear that end-to-end is similar rate with M3. With end-to-end, you have like both HPC and smartphone customer renting out at the same phase or in the first year one or year two, right? Can you expect like... Okay, Bruce's first question is around the N2 REMP. His question is about the REMP and the REMP profile because we said the N2 REMP profile is the version N3. So what does that mean? And then also, of course, what revenue contribution do we expect or can we share for N2 in 2026? We have a good argument. Usually we ramp up a new node using the smartphone. If you do that, everybody uses it. Now it's not only a smartphone but also HPC product. However, the ramping profile I just reported is similar to 3 nanometers. It's limited by our capability to build a new fire to ramp it up. And also, a little bit, it's straightforward, it's constrained by the capacity. So we say the ramp profile is similar to M3, but... The revenue contribution certainly will be bigger, because you don't expect our N2 is the same price as our N3, right? Good. Thank you. If that is the case, we should assume that in 2027, the N2 rental will be faster, right? Because you take 12, 18 months with the use of your new file. You should be able to achieve even higher growth in N2 in 2027. So Bruce is asking if the revenue contribution is higher in 26 and should it be even greater in 27? Do I answer that question in 26? Thank you. Okay, the next question is for M5 and M3. So I want to understand the supply demand for the M5 and M3 in the coming two years. I thought most of the AI will migrate to M3 next year, but it seems to me that the M5 conversion is mostly down, you know, M5-M3 conversion is mostly down, and we don't really see, like, greenfield capacity change from M3. So it becomes, like, super, like, you know, titanous for the M3 for the coming years. Does that mean that N5 will be, you know, low in the future, or, you know, we try to build more N3 in the future, or what kind of, or we should see, you know, we can fill out more value for N3 and N5 next year? Okay, Bruce's second question is around N5 and N3. He wants to know what is the outlook, the supply-demand at these two advanced nodes the coming two years. His observation, AI products will migrate to N3, and the N5-N3 conversion is mostly done. So his question is, will 3-nanometer supply be very tight the next three years? And I think the last part, therefore, can we earn our value or price? for that tightness and then on the flip side what about five nanometer will it become a lower utilization i like your comment and we have to share our value because of very tight in n3 capacity it will be continued for a couple of years very tight and in fact n5 also very tight the demand is high because of A lot of AI products are still in the 4-nanometer technology node, and they will transition to 3-nanometer probably in the next two years. So meanwhile, M5 are still very tight in capacity. M3 even tighter. And so we are working hard. One of the TSMC's advantages is that we have a gigabit cluster. And so we have between N7, N5, N3, even the future N2, we have almost for each node, we have about 85% to 90% compatible tools. So it's not free, but it's much easier for the agency to adjust or convert the capacity between those nodes. And today, let me share with you, we are using the N7 capacity to support N5 because N5 is too tight. And then we are converting N5 to N3, as you just pointed out. We will continue to do that. And so today, our leading edge technology is a capacity. We define N7 and below are all very tight. Seeing that, we are working very hard to, again, using my sentence, narrow the gap between the demand and the capacity. Okay. Thank you, Bruce. Let's go to the participants online. We'll take two questions from the online, and then we'll come back to the floor. Thank you. Operator? Yes. Now asking question, Brett Simpson, Eritrea. Yeah, thanks very much. I had a question for Wendell on gross margins. And it's always helpful you've laid out a framework for some of the puts and takes to TSMC's gross margins. But my question is really some of these headwinds like FX and the dilution from overseas fabs are more structural cost increases. And to what extent can TSMC... adjust wafer pricing higher to neutralize these cost increases in your business. And I guess secondly on this point, how much economic benefits are you seeing from applying AI across the fabs? I think NVIDIA has mentioned that they're working with TSMC closely strategically in areas like computational lithography. to try to drive further fab efficiencies. So can you maybe just give us some examples where you're seeing real gains in your cost structure? And are we at a point where you're starting to see several points of gross margin benefit from AI efficiencies? Thanks. All right, Brett. So, Brett, first question is a little bit involved, but looking at our gross margin and profitability. He notes that the unfavorable exchange rate and the dilution from the overseas due to the higher cost, these are structural headwinds. So his question is, how can we or can we earn our value or adjust our wafer price to help offset some of these? And also, how much we've talked about before about using AI ourselves in our operations. How much economic benefit are we deriving from things such as the lead role with our customers and other examples of using AI? where it's helping our cost structure and can we quantify that, quantify the benefits, sorry. That's your question, right, Brett? That's right. Thanks, Jeff. Okay, Brett, the first question, gross margin. That's the reason why we've been talking about the six factors affecting our profitability. I don't think I need to repeat those six factors. Whenever, for example, using foreign exchanges as an example, a few years ago there were also periods of time that foreign exchanges were against us. So we're able to lean on the other factors to help us mitigate the negative impact from certain factors and therefore still achieve our gross margin targets. And you specifically asked about ASP, raising the price. But the price is just one of the factors. And I believe Cici just elaborated a lot on earning our value. And at the same time, there are other factors that we can leverage on. So all in all, that's why we're saying 53% and higher, and higher, gross margin is still achievable. Your second question, though, AI benefits. I think we also talked about that before. We use that in operation, manufacturing. We also use that in R&Ds. And just think about if we are able to produce 1% of productivity gains in a company of our size, that equals to $1 billion. So that's the number we can share with you without going into too much other detail. Does that answer your question, Brad? Yeah, that's great. Thanks very much, Wendell. I guess my follow-up question, I guess just digesting your prepared remarks, CC, you mentioned 11 FABs in Taiwan. I think I counted eight FABs for overseas that you're planning. that aren't commercially online yet. Can you maybe just talk a bit about, I mean, I've never seen that type of roadmap before from TSMC. It's quite big. Can you maybe share with us if you're planning? a bigger expansion of new capacity next year. And I say this because, you know, in the last few months, we've seen so many gigawatts of data in our announcements. I think this week we had one from Netta that was significant. So are you – the demand looks very strong, and I'm just wondering whether you have enough capacity to satisfy demand next year, whether you plan to convert further 5 nanometer to 3 nanometer. and how you see the M2 capacity planned for 2026. Thank you. Okay, Brett's second question, he notes that we are building many fabs both in Taiwan and also overseas. He's never seen this size or scale of capacity extension from TSMC before. And he also notes that the demand from data centers continues to be very strong. So his question is basically very simply, do we have enough capacity to support? the strong demand specific to next year, and also very specifically to 2 nanometer, and will we further also convert more 5 nanometer to 3? That's, I think, all of his question. Thank you. Rick? Your observation is right. Recently, we saw a lot of announcement of the AI data center around the world. And the demand on 3 nanometers, actually on 5 nanometers, 3 nanometers, and the future 2 nanometers are very high. And we did not see this kind of a strong demand for a long time. But what is enough to support them, I still want to use my word, say that we try very hard to narrow the gap. between the demand and the supply. We're working very hard. Okay. Thank you, Brad. Let's go to the next participant on the call. Now it's Arthur Lai from Macquarie. The line is open now. Hi. Thank you, CC, Wendell, and Jeff. Arthur Lai from Macquarie. Again, congrats. A strong result. I would like to follow up on the N2. I think as CJ highlighted, this is a very exciting note. We are all hurt. And then I want to follow up on the return on investment. Can you compare to the N2 and N3, the return on investment, and then give us more color? Second one is... The reason we ask this question is because the tech test, the area actually, N2 is higher, right? And then we also heard from industry that the company's yield on the N2 is also pretty good. So can you give us some put and take on how we think of the N2's future development? Thank you. Okay, so Arthur's question, both questions I think are on N2. N2, as he said, is a very exciting note. He would like to know, understand what is the return or the return on investment that we see from N2 compared to N3. And also... Can we talk a little bit into the capex is higher, but the yield is still very good. What is the developments that we're seeing for two nanometer? I think that's, is that your question, Ankur? Yes, yes. Yeah, exactly. Hey, Ankur. N2, return. As we said before, N2, the profitability is better than N3. Now, there were questions asking how many quadrants to catch up with the corporate before. And N3 was, it took N3 longer. But for N2, we think it will be back to the old days. Having said that, I need to remind everyone that in the old days, we're talking about corporate average of, say, 50% gross margin. Nowadays, we're talking about 53% gross margin. So it becomes less meaningful to talk about how much time it takes to catch up with corporate nowadays. But having said that, structurally, N2 does have a better profitability to N3. Okay. And N2 development is right on track. We're renting it in the second half of this year. We expect the revenue to come up in the first half of next year. Okay. Thank you, Wendell. Thank you, Arthur. Let's come back to the floor. We'll go left, middle, right. So maybe Sunny Lin from UDF. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. Very good results and congrats. So my first question is to follow up on K-PAC. So obviously, full ESL is stronger. You are turning more constructive on high-performance compute and AI. Yet you are keeping your KPAC guidance. So is it fair to assume that you are considering some conservatism for KPAC for this year, given the ongoing macro uncertainty? Or is it because in the short term, your capacity extension is somewhat constrained by the ability that you can run from more capacity? And therefore, maybe in 2026 and 2027, we should expect some accelerations of your CAPEX ending. Okay. So Sunny's first question is around CAPEX. She notes, of course, that we raised our 2025 revenue guidance this year, and we certainly still see a very robust demand from AI, yet we kept CAPEX guidance in the same range. 38 to 42, so she wants to understand why. Is it because of macro uncertainty? Is it because of constraints in the construction? And her other part of this question is, what is the CAPEX outlook for 26 and 27, I guess? Sunny, the CAPEX, as we said before, the CAPEX invested in the given year is for the business opportunities in the following years. And as long as there are business opportunities, we will not hesitate to invest. Having said that, nowadays, as Citi also said, with all these macro uncertainties, we are mindful of these uncertainties. So we also take that into consideration in our capacity and CAPEX plan. Going forward, It's too early to talk about future years, Capex, but I can share with you a company of our size. It's unlikely that you see Capex dollar amount suddenly drop a lot in any given years. That's all I can share with you. Got it. Sounds like CapEx could be going higher in the coming years. My second question is on Cloud AI. And so you, things like earlier, achieved most of the sales upside for 2025 to Cloud AI. And therefore, I wonder if you have an update on the Cloud AI growth in 2025, which you guided before to be about 100% for 2025, and the implication to your core capacity extension. would you be uh are you able to maybe expect to spend more co-op capacity for this year to stronger to support a stronger cloud ai growth uh for sure and any uh other early insights that you could share with us for your co-op capacity extension for 2026. thank you okay so sunny's second question is asking about uh our ai well she said cloud ai basically our ai accelerator growth in 2025 and related the COAS capacity. So her question is, what is the AI-accelerated revenue growth we expect in 2025? And then what is our COAS capacity extension plan for 2025? And she asked a similar question to Charlie or someone earlier. What is the plan for COAS capacity in 2026? My answer stays the same. We are trying very hard to narrow the gap. For now, you know, for 2026, the demand, the momentum are very healthy and very strong. And so we are building many new facilities in the back end to increase the AI capacity to support our customers. AI demand is very strong. And so... There's co-op capacity. The demand is very strong. Okay. Thank you, Sonny. Then we'll move on to our lower chain from Citi. Thank you for taking my question, and congrats for the good result and outlook. My question is also about the AI chip. CC, you mentioned that AI chip is getting bigger and bigger, and also the power consumption is getting much more. So I'm just wondering that among, like, your advanced technology, including, like, the advanced nodes, we also noted that during the symposium, new technology in advanced packaging as well so i'm just wondering uh how do you kind of prioritize your uh leading age advanced packaging uh during the symposium we see that uh system now wait for that kind of a new design uh do you have any like uh plan or like timeline for the new technology and should we think about that uh that should be kind of aligned with our most advanced node a process like an n2 or x16 going forward Okay, so Laura's first question is on advanced packaging. Notes AI, the die sizes are increasing, the need for power consumption or energy efficiency is rising. So she wants to understand how our strategy for advanced packaging along with the advanced node development. Are there any specific packaging solutions that we're prioritizing? What about the timeline and roadmap? How does that match up with our advanced node roadmap? I think TSMC's philosophy to develop a technology is working with customers. The customer has such demand, we develop the technology, we increase the capacity for them. So, every customer is important to TSMC. And in the advanced packaging side, A lot of customers are using the different approaches. So we are developing a variety of different back-end packaging, advanced technology for all the customers. Further is related to the advanced leading edge technology. The answer is yes. Okay. So we have a system integration. We have cold water air. That's the terminology. We have a lot of different names that I cannot even remember, but it's a lot of varieties, and we work with our customers to meet their demand. Now I can answer you. Is that easy to kind of leverage or transfer different kind of technology from your contractor? So more of that being how fungible are these different packaging technologies, how interchangeable and easy to transfer the technology between different packaging solutions? Of course. There are some similarities in between. Otherwise, we are going to take too much of the effort, and it did not get the return. Yes, there's a lot of similarities, but a lot of varieties also. Okay. Thank you. And my second question is we know that, obviously, the AI demands advanced nodes, advanced living age packaging is very tight. But I'm just wondering that industry-wise, we still see probably overcapacity in mature nodes. Yet TSMC also has, like, more mature 16 nanometer or above that kind of process. So can we kind of consolidate? or mature nodes to kind of make better efficiency and probabilities to enhance those capacity to fulfill the demands across the board. Okay, so Laura's second question is on mature nodes. She notes there is overcapacity on the industry-wide and older nodes. So she wants to understand for TSMC specifically, if we take, for example, 60 nanometer and older nodes, what is our strategy? Can we consolidate amongst the different nodes? How do we protect our profitability? Good question. If you read the newspaper, there's so much of a mature node capacity. TSMC's strategy actually is on the mature node technologies, we develop kind of specialties. For example, that RL technology or CMOS mini sensor or the high voltage. So we develop the technology at the request of our customer. So we don't worry too much about what you say, the overcapacity. If it is really overcapacity, we will not build a FAB in Japan. We will not build a FAB in Germany. So it's not overcapacity. It's all related to customers' need, customers' demand, and those are all specialty technologies. Did I answer your question? Thank you. Okay. Thank you, Laura. I think in the interest of time, we'll go to Brad Lynn from Bank of America, then we'll take one more from the line, and then if there's one more, from the floor. Thank you for taking the question. I have two questions. My first one is on the humanoid robot. So we have learned that humanoid robots started to contribute to the TSMC, and it is gaining momentum as the next frontier of the AI hardware. How does TSMC evaluate the market size of humanoid robots in the semiconductor in terms of their potential market cap, compute, and also sensor requirements? Thank you. that might be another driver potentially for mature nodes to do. Thank you. Okay. Thank you, Brad. So Brad's first question is around humanoid robots. We're starting to see some contribution. He wants to understand how do we evaluate the market size? What is the addressable opportunities for TSMC in the long term at the leading edge and also on the mature nodes with certain type of specialty? Right. It's too early, actually, it's too early to say the humanoid robot will play a role in this year. Next year, probably still too early because it's so complicated. You know that the humanoid robot will be, most of the time, will be used. I think the first one will be used in the medical industry. to take care of the people getting old like me. And, you know, I probably someday I need some humanoid robot to help me. But, you know, it's very complicated because we are talking about the brain only. Actually, we are talking about another sensor. sensor technology, the image sensor, the pressure sensor, the temperature sensor, and all the feedback to the CPU. And so it's very complicated. And since it's dealing with a human being directly, I should be very, very careful. But then once you start to fly, you are a big, big plus. I talked to one of my customers. And he said that the EV car is nothing. It's a robot. There are 10 kinds of that. I'm waiting for that. Okay. Does that answer your question? Yes, yes. I believe the client definitely owns EV cars and robots too, so he knows it well. So my second question will be on the potential pulling ahead of the so-called reflecting the value into 2026. So we know, well, normally we continue to reflect the value into our pricing. So given the potentially higher pricing into 2026, are you observing any signs of demand pulling from the customers in the second half of the year and potentially, well, given the tight? pipeline of 3.5, would we see a continuous trend into 4Q, even though we already guided potential decline, but yeah, and then pulling potentially. Thank you. Okay, Brad, second question, very specifically, he's asking, as we talked about that we will continue to earn our value, do we see any customers trying to pull in their demand ahead of 2026 into the second half of this year? And do we have any additional comments to offer on the fourth quarter besides what we have already shared? Well, the answer is no. We did not see any different customers' behavior so far. Okay. But let me share with you, I add more color. If you are talking about the 3 nanometers demand, for example, in the cycle time you sell, what takes about four months. So there's no way you can pull in anything. I mean, that's a, yeah. And we have, as I said, our capacity is very, very tight. So we already have all the schedules. And so we need room for pulling in, let me say that. Even if they want it, but no. The answer is no. So 2036 is 2036. We will share with you. Yeah. Thank you very much. Thank you, Cece. Thank you, Brad. All right. Operator, let's go to the, we'll take questions from the last person on the line. Yes, the last one to ask question. from SIG. Thanks for taking my question. The first one has to do with capital intensity. When I look at the past five years when you were ramping N3 and N5, the capital intensity was at or above 40%. And you also highlighted how N2 tape-outs were tracking better than N3 and N5 combined. Does that imply that the capital intensity would need to go back up to 40%? In other words, an initial investment for M2 to accommodate these takeouts. Is that the right way of thinking about how investment can play out and how it's done? Okay, Nidhi. Sorry. We couldn't hear you exactly because let me try to summarize your question, all right, which is some of these questions around capital intensity. He notes that in the past when we invest in new nodes or structural mega trends like we have with N3 and N5, our capital intensity has jumped up to greater than 40%. So if I heard you correctly, your question is this time we talked about the strong demand for 2 nanometer multi-year upcoming. What is our expectation on capital intensity? Is that correct, Nadir? Yes, that's correct. Okay. Okay, Nadir, let me answer this question. As we just said, the capital expenditure invested in any year is the future growth opportunities. So if we do our job right, the growth in the next few years is likely to exceed. the growth in K-tax dollars. Even though, as I said, the K-tax dollars is unlikely to drop significantly in every given year. So you see a higher growth in revenue than the growth in capital expenditure, then you don't have such a high capital intensity. And we actually demonstrated that in the past few years. And also, let me just share with you that Because of this, we're not operating, setting a capital intensity as a goal. It's the dollar amount invested is really on the structure demand growth in the following years. So talking about capital intensity is also less meaningful than before. Okay. Thank you. You have an M2P, I'm sorry, you have an A16, which will be very applicable for high performance compute. Is that the node where AI and HPC would actually be at call with a smartphone as an end market that would drive demand for the most linear edge nodes? Sorry, Madi, again, I apologize. I could not hear you clearly, but I think his question is about on A16 where we said it's more for specific HPC-related offerings. So his question is, I think, Madi, your question is, is that where the AI demand also comes in for the 2-nanometer family? Yes. And I said because so far AI has been N plus 1, N plus 2. is that node, A16, the first node where AI would move to the leading edge. Okay, his question, okay, maybe let me rephrase it. I think I understand better. His question is really about AI adoption of the leading edge node, the end node. You know, we see smartphone, we see HPC. His question is very specifically, how do we see the AI adoption of the most leading node for TSMC? He observed in the past that it's generally been one node behind. So how do we see that going forward with things such as A16? Well, you're right. Usually the HPC's customer always one step behind using M plus one or M plus two technologies. Now, because of AI demand is so strong, that's one thing. But the most important thing is we need some kind of performance, but the power consumption is very, very important. And when we talk about AI 16, we have another power efficiency improvement across to 20%. That's a big value for all the AI data centers applications. So that helped my customer moving faster because every time when we talk about the AI data center, If you notice that, the first thing they talk about is power supply, electricity, right? So they did not tell you, say, the power efficiency is very important, but they tell you that we have to build a very big electricity power plant. to support the AI data center. So that tell you how important it is. And TSMC technology, by the way, on A16, it's a further improvement of the M2 node. So it's not a surprise for TSMC to expect for those people in AI data centers industry, they want to use in A16. Okay. Thank you, CC. Thank you, Lizzy. We'll take the last question from the floor. We have one participant here, Felix Tan from KGI. Hi. Thanks, Jeff. I only have one question about the overseas expansion. I think CC earlier mentioned that the second step for the M3, there's a strong demand, so you guys need to speed up several quarters for that. together with I think U.S. government also raised the investment tax credit cap for next year. So I wonder how this shape or how this speed up your ramping schedule for the second FAB and how this impact to the overseas FAB dilution for the guidance windows given earlier. I think the follow-up question will be You guys speed up the U.S. investment. How is that impact to other regional investment like Japan and Germany as well? And lastly, is that possible to break down the overseas capex and domestic capex going forward? Yeah, that's all my questions. Okay. Yeah, that's pretty much two questions. But, okay, so Felix's question on our overseas expansion plans, he notes that, yes, he said we're speeding up the – schedule for the second FAB in the U.S. And he also notes the recent passage of the U.S. ITC bill. So how does this impact or affect our rent schedules in our U.S. extension? And what is the implication or impact to the overseas dilution? That's number one. Wow, that's two questions. Okay, let me... share with you about our ramp-up schedule. It's totally because of our customers' demand. And we appreciate the U.S. government increase the ITC from 25% to 35%. We appreciate that. It helps. But the real schedule is because of our customers' demand. So we have to prepare the capacity to meet their demand. That's the number one consideration. The margin impact, it is positive, although not that significant in the five-year period. Think about this. The IGC is used to offset the YASA value, and the benefit comes when depreciation starts. So it gets amortized. And then, David, the second question is how does the ramp in speedup of the U.S. extension cluster extension how is this impacting our extension plans in japan and europe if it does at all well you think about the tsmc expansion uh the oversea file in the u.s is the dgs in japan it's uh unspecialty technology uh to be specific most of time is for the shimosumi sensor for germany it's um automotive industry so they are all not in the same field so actually it's not affect the investment in the US or invest on the leading edge does not affect the investment in Japan or in Germany Thank you, Cece. Thank you, Felix. Okay, everyone, so this concludes our question and answer session. Before we conclude today's conference, please be advised that the replay of the conference will be accessible within 30 minutes from now. The transcript will become available 24 hours from now, and both are going to be available through TSMC's website at www.tsmt.com. So thank you very much for joining us today. We hope everyone continues to stay well. and we hope you will join us again next quarter goodbye and have a good day thank you
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